Quantitative Risk Analysis
Moving from what could go wrong to how much it is likely to cost — with the statistical rigour to set contingency with real confidence.
What’s included
- Risk probability and impact assessment and scoring.
- Monte Carlo simulation for cost and programme risk.
- P50/P80/P90 outcome probability distribution modelling.
- Contingency and risk allowance quantification to AACE standards.
- Sensitivity analysis identifying highest-impact risk drivers.
- Quantitative risk analysis report for client and funder review.
Where qualitative risk identification tells a project what could go wrong, quantitative risk analysis tells it how much that risk is actually likely to cost or delay the project — assigning probability and impact values to identified risks and using structured analytical techniques, including Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic modelling, to produce a defensible, evidence-based view of a project's overall risk exposure and appropriate contingency.
We carry out quantitative risk analysis in line with recognised international practice, including AACE International's recommended practices for risk analysis and contingency estimating, producing outputs that give project leadership genuine, statistically grounded insight — a probability distribution of likely outcomes, rather than a single-point estimate that implies a certainty the underlying risk picture doesn't actually support. This rigour is what allows contingency and risk provision to be set with real confidence rather than defaulting to an arbitrary industry-standard percentage.
Other parts of Risk Management
